Once Again Iran Produces Disinformation
by Rabbi Dr. Daniel M.
Zucker, D.D.
Global Politician, International Analyst Network, 21 December 2010
Canada Free Press,"Iran
Abolghasem Bayyenat, reportedly a
trade expert for the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ministry of Commerce, and admittedly
a former political officer in its Foreign Ministry, recently penned an article
entitled “Economic Sanctions Against Iran”.[1] In
it, he claims that sanctions are counter-productive, causing pain only to the
Iranian people and causing the regime further to resist efforts to find a
diplomatic solution to the problem of nuclear proliferation. In his essay,
Bayyenat suggests that Iran has successfully mitigated most of the effects of
the sanctions, and that they are only hurting the innocent Iranian population.
Reports from Iran would seem to
suggest that the truth is not quite as Bayyenat suggests. Yes, ordinary Iranians
are suffering as the sanctions cause economic hardship, and yes, it is unlikely
that the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad regime will relent and turn away from its pursuit
of nuclear weaponry ála Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, but to claim that these rounds
of increasing sanctions are not affecting the Iranian regime is disingenuous at
best. Even before the publication of Bayyenat’s article, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of
Iran's atomic energy agency, told the ISNA news agency on Wednesday, July 7th,
that the sanctions could have some impact. “We cannot say the sanctions
have no effect. Maybe they will slow down the
work but they will not stop it, that's certain,” said Salehi.[2] The following day, Reihaneh Mazaheri, an Iranian economic journalist
based in Paris, reported that as
international sanctions mount, Iran is finding it increasing hard to find
buyers for its oil, and is being forced to offer discounts in order to shift as
much as it can to a falling number of customers.[3]
One month later Tehran’s chief banker, Mahmoud Bahmani, governor of the Central Bank, told a news
conference on August 8th: “Reducing the consumption of imported
goods means confronting the sanctions. There is no other way….We need to
decrease imports. We should not allow all goods to enter the country.”[4] The following month,
September, saw Iran forced to convert petrochemical plants to boost domestic production of gasoline,
since traders have curbed supplies of gasoline—Iran depends on imports for
about a third of its domestic needs—Tehran was forced to activate an emergency
plan to raise domestic production.[5]
The week before Bayyenat published his article, The Economist
reported that the sanctions “are inexorably adding to the cost and hassle of
doing business. Almost all the biggest international traders in refined
petroleum products, for instance, have stopped dealing with Iran, forcing the
country to rely on costlier small-scale overland shipments for much of the
petrol that it still has to import because of underinvestment in refining.
The
sanctions have also stemmed the flow of much-needed foreign investment and
skills, particularly to the energy sector that accounts for 80% of Iran’s
export earnings. …Largely as a result of such setbacks, Iran’s oil ministry is
unlikely to hit its targets of raising oil-production capacity by 35% by 2015
and launching exports of liquefied natural gas, concludes a recent report by
Nomura, a Japanese stockbroker. Instead, oil output is likely to fall by 15%
and exports by as much as 25%.”[6]
Now, if we look at reports
issued after Bayyenat’s composition, it would seem that the sanctions are
indeed causing the Iranian regime difficulties. For example, trade between
Dubai and Iran is “suffocating under the
ever-tightening grip of sanctions.”[7] Morteza Masoumzadeh, vice president of the Iranian Business
Council and managing director of Jumbo Line shipping agency told Reuters: “There is a severe impact on trade
between the UAE and Iran due to the current sanctions, particularly on the
banking sector. Due to the recent sanctions, the Iranian banks’ operations have
come almost to a standstill. They have lost their businesses.”[8]
Reuters also reported recently that “Iran
is finding it increasingly difficult to access the financial services it needs
to run its economy and may lose up to $60 billion in energy investments due to
global sanctions.”[9]
The
aforementioned Reuters story is backed up by the report that U.S. Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial
Intelligence Stuart Levey noted in his December 1st testimony to the
House Committee on Foreign Affairs that the U.S. sanctions measures are
yielding “dramatic” results. Levey concluded: “As a result of the international
community's recent sanctions measures, including CISADA, and of our efforts to
publicize Iran’s illicit and deceptive conduct, Iran is feeling the pressure of
sanctions as never before. Iran is struggling to find access to the
international financial system, without which it is difficult to run an economy
on the scale that a country like Iran needs.”[10]
It would also seem that Mr. Bayyenat either was ignorant of the
mid-September remarks of Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, current chairman of the
Assembly of Experts and longtime chairman of the Expediency Discernment
Council, or deliberately was trying to refute them. Rafsanjani had told the influential
86-member Assembly of Experts: “We have never been faced with so many
sanctions. I would like to ask you and all the country's officials to take the
sanctions seriously and not as a joke.”[11]
Economic
sanctions, admittedly, will not convince the Iranian regime to cease its
pursuit of nuclear arms. Ever stiffer sanctions can make it more difficult for
Iran to achieve its goal of joining the nuclear club and serve to help delay
its entrance. Sanctions and embargoes, while affecting all Iranians, also serve
to inform the Iranian people that the United States is willing to stand up to
the tyrannical regime in Tehran. Contrary to that which Bayyenat claims—that
sanctions will alienate the Iranian people from America and the West—sanctions
and embargoes will demonstrate that the U.S. is willing to pressure the regime
and force it to suffer consequences for its rogue behavior. Although not
guaranteed, such an American position could serve to encourage the
long-suffering, much disgruntled Iranian people to throw off their current corrupt
regime.
Evidence
that not all is running as smoothly as Bayyenat claims can be seen in the
shifting regime policy concerning gasoline rationing. On March 18th
of this year, the regime announced that it would start cutting back the supply
of subsidized gasoline from 21 gallons to 15 gallons per month per vehicle,
starting on March 21st.[12]
Six months later, having promised an end to subsidies in order to help the
economy, Ahmadinejad reversed himself and delayed the ending of subsidies out
of fear of a popular backlash.[13]
By the middle of October, Tehran began the risky business of cutting back on
subsidies.[14]
However, a month later, it once again reversed itself and continued with the
subsidies until the end of 2010.[15]
Ahmadinejad is still trying to cut the subsidies and reorganize the economy,
but he is fighting a very steep uphill battle that risks alienating many of his
supporters.[16]
Meanwhile, Iranians are experiencing a steadily rising sense of anxiety as they
wait for “the other shoe to drop” as regards subsidies.[17]
A 700% increase in gasoline prices recently was predicted by some in the
Iranian government when subsidies are ended.[18]
This week once again United Nations
members noted with grave concern that Iran continues to violate weapons
sanctions imposed in 2007.[19] Given
Bayyenat’s former position in the Foreign Ministry and his track record of
presenting disinformation,[20]
one should be careful to read between the lines and see what he is trying to
sell to his audience. It also is disconcerting to note that Mr. Bayyenat is
back in this country serving as a teaching assistant in the Political Science
Department of Syracuse University[21]
while pursuing his Ph.D. It seems that American academia still is woefully
unaware of the Iranian (and other) wolves in sheep’s clothing. Iran’s VEVAK
agents don’t always remain as invisible as they hope, but they definitely
continue to be persistent in seeking their goals which include misleading the
unwary about the goals and objectives of the Tehran regime.
Postscript: Gasoline prices indeed
have risen dramatically (roughly 400%) over this past weekend as the regime
phased out its subsidies.[22]
This article is dedicated to the memory of Mehdi
Fathi, Iranian patriot and longtime resident of Camp Ashraf, Iraq, who passed
away on Friday, 10 December 2010.
Rabbi Dr. Daniel M. Zucker, D.D., is founder and Chairman of the Board
of Americans for Democracy in the
Middle-East, a grassroots organization dedicated to teaching our
elected officials and the public of the dangers posed by Islamic fundamentalism
and the need to establish genuine democratic institutions in the Middle-East as
an antidote to the venom of fundamentalism. He may be contacted at contact@ADME.ws.
[1]
Abolghasem Bayyenat,
“Economic Sanctions Against Iran”, Global Politician, October 14, 2010, http://www.globalpolitician.com/26621-iran-sanctions.
[2]
Reuters, “Iran admits sanctions could slow down nuclear programme”, Gulf
News, July 8, 2010, http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran/iran-admits-sanctions-could-slow-down-nuclear-programme-1.651605.
[3]
Reihaneh Mazaheri, “Iran Cuts Oil Prices
as Sanctions Bite”, Institute for War & Peace Reporting, IRN Issue 43, July 8, 2010, http://iwpr.net/report-news/iran-cuts-oil-prices-sanctions-bite.
[4] Middle
East Online, “Sanctions bite: Iran to cut imports”, Middle East Online,
August 8, 2010, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=40464.
[5]
Roula Khalaf, “No compromise as sanctions bite in Iran”, Financial
Times, September 16, 2010, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0173519c-c1af-11df-9d90-00144feab49a.html#axzz17xJozkH0.
[6]
“Iran's economy: Sanctions begin to bite”, The Economist,
October 7, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17204603.
[7]
Martina Fuchs, “Sanctions squeeze Dubai's trade with
Iran”, Reuters, November 24, 2010, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AN2UV20101124.
[8] Ibid.
[9] Reuters,
“U.S.: Sanctions costing Iran investment, banking access”, The Daily Star,
December 2, 2010, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=3&article_id=122076#axzz17xttoOEk.
[10]
“Written testimony by Under Secretary for Terrorism and
Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey before the House Committee on Foreign
Affairs,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, December 1, 2010. Available
at http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/TG985.aspx and cited as footnote # 207 in Varun Vira, John Karian, David Pupkin, Stephen Szrom, Maseh Zarif, Daniel Katz,
“Sanctions
on Iran: Reactions and Impact”, AEI Iran Tracker, December 8, 2010,
http://www.irantracker.org/us-policy/sanctions-iran-reactions-and-impact.
[11] Thomas Erdbrink, “Cleric says sanctions in Iran are a threat”, The
Washington Post, September 15, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/14/AR2010091406402.html.
[12] UPI,
“Iran cuts gasoline subsidies”, UPI, March 18, 2010, http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2010/03/18/Iran-cuts-gasoline-subsidies/UPI-11391268918584/.
[13] Robin
Pomeroy, “Iran delays phasing out gasoline subsidies”, Reuters,
September 16, 2010, http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/09/16/iran-delays-phasing-gasoline-subsidies/.
[14] Jay
Solomon and Farnaz Fassihi, “Iran to pare food, gasoline subsidies”, Wall
Street Journal, October 23, 2010, http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22048:iran-to-pare-food-gas-subsidies-&catid=31:economy&Itemid=46.
[15] “Iran to extend fuel subsidies through December”, World
Tribune, November 23, 2010, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/me_oil1161_11_23.asp.
[16]
Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran Confronts an ‘Economic Evolution’: Ahmadinejad's
Plan to Curb Government Subsidies Threatens to Alienate Recipients”, The
Washington Post, December 4, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/03/AR2008120304230.html?sid=ST2008120402515.
[17] Mosen
Asgari, “Increased security as Iran’s subsidy programme bites”, BBC,
November 9, 2010, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11685293.
See also: Semira N. Nikou, “Tehran Bureau: High Anxiety over Falling
Subsidies”, Frontline, November 15, 2010, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/11/high-anxiety-over-falling-subsidies.html.
[18]
Ramin Mostafavi, “UPDATE
1-Iran denies 700 pct gasoline price hike plan”, Reuters, December 1,
2010, http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFMOS14182220101201?sp=true.
[19] Special
Reports, “‘Grave concern’ stated over Iran’s weapons”, UPI, December 13,
2010, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/12/13/Grave-concern-stated-over-Irans-weapons/UPI-86421292262889/.
[20]
Abolghasem Bayyenat, “Is regime change possible in Iran?”, Global Politician,
April 23, 2006, http://www.globalpolitician.com/print.asp?id=1738;
see my critical analysis of his article in Daniel M. Zucker, “Iran’s VEVAK:
Disinformation, Inc.”, International Analyst Network, September 17,
2006, http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=364.
[21] See the
following course syllabus: James B. Bennett, “Making Foreign Policy”, Syracuse
University, http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/jbennett/359s10/silly359s10.html.
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